Principal Risks of Investing in TCM Strategies
The principal risks of investing in TCM Strategies are summarized below and are presented in alphabetical order to facilitate finding and comparing particular risks with other strategies. Regardless of the order in which it appears, each risk summarized below is considered a “principal risk” of investing in TCM Strategies, any of which may adversely affect a Strategy’s yield, total return and/or ability to meet its objectives.
As with any investment, there is a risk that you could lose all or a portion of your investment in the Strategies.
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TCM Strategies are actively managed and may not meet their investment objective if the statistical analyses fail to identify the direction or strength of market movements or based on the Adviser’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for portfolios. TCM Strategies may invest in complex instruments (each described below), including options and leveraged, inverse or inverse-leveraged ETFs. Such instruments may create enhanced risks for TCM Strategies, and the Adviser’s ability to control TCM Strategies’ level of risk will depend on the Adviser’s skill in managing such instruments.
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Holding cash or cash equivalents rather than securities or other instruments in which TCM Strategies primarily invest, even strategically, may cause TCM Strategies to risk losing opportunities to participate in market appreciation, and may cause TCM Strategies to experience potentially lower returns than TCM Strategies’ benchmark or other strategies that remain fully invested. In rising markets, holding cash or cash equivalents may negatively affect TCM Strategies’ performance relative to their benchmark.
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TCM Strategies’ investments are heavily dependent on proprietary statistical analyses that include the use of information and data supplied by third parties (“Data”). When Data proves to be incorrect or incomplete, any decisions made in reliance thereon may lead to the inclusion or exclusion of investments that would have been excluded or included had the Data been correct and complete.
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TCM Strategies’ derivative investments have risks, including the imperfect correlation between the value of such instruments and the underlying assets or index; the loss of principal, including the potential loss of amounts greater than the initial amount invested in the derivative instrument; and illiquidity of the derivative investments. The derivatives used by TCM Strategies may give rise to a form of leverage. Leverage magnifies the potential for gain and may result in greater losses. To the extent TCM Strategies invest in such derivative instruments, the value of TCM Strategies’ portfolios is likely to experience greater volatility over short-term periods.
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TCM Strategies have exposure to common stocks through their investments in equity index-linked instruments. Common stocks are generally exposed to greater risk than other types of securities, such as preferred stock and debt obligations, because common stockholders generally have inferior rights to receive payment from specific issuers. Equity securities may experience sudden, unpredictable drops in value or long periods of decline in value. This may occur because of factors that affect securities markets generally or factors affecting specific industries, sectors, or companies in which TCM Strategies directly or indirectly invest. In addition, local, regional, or global events such as war, acts of terrorism, spread of infectious diseases or other public health issues (such as the global pandemic caused by the COVID-19 virus), recessions, rising inflation, or other events could have a significant negative impact on TCM Strategies and their investments. Such events could adversely affect the prices and liquidity of TCM Strategies’ portfolio securities or other instruments and could result in disruptions in the trading markets.
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An ETF is an investment fund traded on stock exchanges, similar to stocks. Investing in ETFs carries the risk of capital loss (sometimes up to a 100% loss in the case of a stock holding bankruptcy). Areas of concern include the lack of transparency in products and increasing complexity, conflicts of interest and the possibility of inadequate regulatory compliance. Precious Metal ETFs (e.g., Gold, Silver, or Palladium Bullion backed "electronic shares" not physical metal) specifically are negatively impacted by several unique factors, among them (1) large sales by the official sector which own a significant portion of aggregate world holdings in gold and other precious metals, (2) a significant increase in hedging activities by producers of gold or other precious metals, and (3) a significant change in the attitude of speculators and investors.
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ETNs may be riskier than ordinary debt securities and may have no principal protection. TCM Strategies’ investment in an ETN may be influenced by many unpredictable factors, including highly volatile commodities prices, changes in interest rates, and monetary and other governmental policies, action, and inaction. Investing in ETNs is not equivalent to investing directly in index components or the relevant index itself. Because ETNs are debt securities, they possess credit risk; if the issuer has financial difficulties or goes bankrupt, the investor may not receive the return it was promised.
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The value of TCM Strategies’ investments in fixed income securities will fluctuate with changes in interest rates. Typically, a rise in interest rates causes a decline in the value of fixed income securities owned indirectly by TCM Strategies. On the other hand, if rates fall, the value of the fixed income securities generally increases. TCM Strategies may be subject to a greater risk of rising interest rates due to the current period of historically low rates and the effect of potential government fiscal policy initiatives and resulting market reaction to those initiatives. In general, the market price of fixed income securities with longer maturities will increase or decrease more in response to changes in interest rates than shorter-term securities.
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TCM Strategies may be affected by force majeure events (i.e., events beyond the control of the party claiming that the event has occurred, including, without limitation, acts of God, fire, flood, earthquakes, outbreaks of an infectious disease, pandemic or any other serious public health concern, war, terrorism, labor strikes, major plant breakdowns, pipeline or electricity line ruptures, failure of technology, defective design and construction, accidents, demographic changes, government macroeconomic policies, social instability, etc.). Some force majeure events may adversely affect the ability of a party to perform its obligations until it is able to remedy the force majeure event. These risks could cause personal injury or loss of life, damage property, or instigate disruptions of service. In addition, the cost to TCM of repairing or replacing damaged assets resulting from such force majeure event could be considerable. Force majeure events that are incapable of or are too costly to cure can have a permanently adverse effect on TCM. Certain force majeure events (such as war or an outbreak of an infectious disease) could also have a broader negative impact on the world economy and international business activity.
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Risks outside of the financial markets, affect the markets and investments, often at times significantly. The occurrence of geopolitical events in recent years such as (but not limited to): Middle East instability; military conflict in Ukraine and surrounding areas, alleged cyber-attacks by Russia, China, and North Korea; ongoing epidemics of infectious diseases that can be spread within a country, region or globally; terrorist attacks in the U.S. and around the world; social and political discord; governmental debt crises, and strains on international relations between the U.S. and a number of foreign countries, including traditional allies; new and continued political unrest in various countries; changes in the U.S. Presidency and federal administration; can result in market volatility, have long-term effects on the U.S. and worldwide financial markets, and cause further economic uncertainties in the U.S. and worldwide.
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TCM Strategies may invest in securities issued by the U.S. government or its agencies or instrumentalities. There can be no guarantee that the United States will be able to meet its payment obligations with respect to such securities. Additionally, market prices and yields of securities supported by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government or other countries may decline or be negative for short or long periods of time.
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Because TCM Strategies may “turn over” some or all of their positions as frequently as daily, TCM Strategies may incur high levels of transaction costs from commissions or the bid/offer spread. Higher portfolio turnover may result in TCM Strategies paying higher levels of transaction costs and generating greater tax liabilities for investors. Portfolio turnover risk may cause TCM Strategies’ performance to be less than expected.
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The risks of investing in other investment companies typically reflect the risks of the types of instruments in which the investment companies invest. By investing in another investment company, TCM Strategies become a shareholder of that investment company and bear its proportionate share of the investment company’s fees and expenses. Investments in ETFs are subject to the “ETF Risk” described above.
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Client portfolios are dependent on the continued service and active trading efforts of its key managers and employees, Matt and Mike Thompson. If the services of any such key managers or employees with the Advisor were to discontinue or lapse, client portfolios could be affected.
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Leveraged, inverse, and inverse-leveraged ETFs (collectively, “Leveraged ETFs”) expose TCM Strategies to all of the risks that traditional ETFs present (see “ETF Risks” above). All Leveraged ETFs rely to some degree, often extensively, on derivatives to achieve their objectives and, thus, TCM Strategies are indirectly exposed to derivatives risk through its investments in Leveraged ETFs. Further, investments in Leveraged ETFs are subject to the risk that the performance of such ETF will not correlate with the underlying index as intended. Leveraged ETFs often “reset” daily, meaning that they are designed to achieve their stated objectives on a daily basis. Due to the effect of compounding, their performance over longer periods of time can differ significantly from the performance (or inverse of the performance) of their underlying index or benchmark during the same period of time. This effect can be magnified in volatile markets. Consequently, these investment vehicles may be extremely volatile and can potentially expose a Fund to complete loss of its investment.
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TCM Strategies may obtain investment exposure in excess of portfolio net assets by utilizing leverage and may lose more money in market conditions that are adverse to its investment objective than a strategy that does not utilize leverage.
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Non-US securities present certain risks such as currency fluctuation, political and economic change, social unrest, changes in government regulation, differences in accounting and the lesser degree of accurate public information available.
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TCM employs the use of options as part of its strategies. An option is a contract to buy or sell a specific financial product known as the option's underlying instrument or underlying interest. For equity options, the underlying instrument is a stock, ETF, or similar product. The contract establishes a specific price, called the strike price, at which the contract may be exercised, or acted on. It also has an expiration date. When an option expires, it no longer has value and no longer exists.
Options come in two varieties, calls and puts. Call contracts will expire worthless if the underlying security closes below the strike price on expiration. Put contracts will expire worthless if the underlying security closes above the strike price on expiration.
Special tax rules may apply, depending on the outcome. Prior to buying or selling an option, Clients should read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Copies of this document may be obtained from TCM, from any exchange on which options are traded, on the web at www.optionsclearing.com/components/docs/riskstoc.pdf or by contacting The Options Clearing Corporation, One North Wacker Dr., Suite 500, Chicago, IL 60606 (l-888-678-4667).
Buying options is a speculative activity and entails greater than ordinary investment risks. Options enable TCM Strategies to purchase exposure that is significantly greater than the premium paid. Consequently, the value of such options can be volatile, and a small investment in options can have a large impact on the performance of TCM Strategies. TCM Strategies risk losing all or part of the cash paid (premium) for purchasing options. Even a small decline in the value of a reference asset underlying call options or a small increase in the value of a reference asset underlying put options can result in the entire investment in such options being lost. Additionally, the value of the option may be lost if TCM fails to exercise such option at or prior to its expiration.
TCM Strategies may sell options in order to obtain additional income from premiums paid by the option buyer. Option writing is often associated with the investment strategy known as covered call writing. Selling a covered call may limit the upside if the underlying security closes above the strike price on expiration.
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TCM Strategies may engage in short position derivative activities which are significantly different from the investment activities commonly associated with conservative stock or bond strategies. Short positions in derivatives are speculative and more risky than “long” positions (purchases) because the upside of the underlying index is, in theory, unlimited. Therefore, the potential loss on an uncovered short derivative, such as a call option, is, in theory, unlimited; whereas the potential loss on long positions is limited to the original purchase price. You should be aware that any strategy that includes short positions could suffer significant losses.
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TCM Strategies’ derivative investments that are linked to equity market volatility levels can be highly volatile and may experience large gains and losses. Trading in VIX Index futures contracts or VIX Index options, particularly contracts that are close to expiration, can be very volatile and can be expected to be very volatile in the future. The volatile nature of these instruments may have an adverse impact on TCM Strategies beyond the impact of any changes in the VIX Index. Additionally, the correlation between the VIX Index and equities is variable and may not be sufficiently negative to act as an effective hedge against equity market declines.